Governing systemic and cascading disaster risk in Indonesia: where do we stand and future outlook

PurposeThis paper aims to identify key factors for a contextualised Systemic Risk Governance (SRG) framework and subsequently explore how systemic risks can be managed and how local institutional mechanisms can be tweaked to deal with the complex Indonesian risk landscape.Design/methodology/approachUsing a case study from Palu triple-disasters in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, the authors demonstrate how inland earthquakes in 2018 created cascading secondary hazards, namely tsunamis, liquefactions and landslides, caused unprecedented disasters for the communities and the nation. A qualitative analysis was conducted using the data collected through a long-term observation since 2002.FindingsThe authors argue that Indonesia has yet to incorporate an SRG approach in its responses to the Palu triple-disasters. Political will is required to adopt more appropriate risk governance modes that promote the systemic risk paradigm. Change needs to occur incrementally through hybrid governance arrangements ranging from formal/informal methods to self- and horizontal and vertical modes of governance deemed more realistic and feasible. The authors recommend that this be done by focusing on productive transition and local transformation.Originality/valueThere is growing awareness and recognition of the importance of systemic and cascading risks in disaster risk studies. However, there are still gaps between research, policy and practice. The current progress of disaster risk governance is not sufficient to achieve the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030) unless there is an effective governing system in place at the local level that allow actors and institutions to simultaneously manage the interplays of multi-hazards, multi-temporal, multi-dimensions of vulnerabilities and residual risks. This paper contributes to these knowledge gaps.

The making of India's COVID-19 disaster: A Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Assemblage analysis.

This article analyses the suite of policies and measures enacted by the Indian Union Government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic through apparatuses of disaster management. We focus on the period from the onset of the pandemic in early 2020, until mid-2021. This holistic review adopts a Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Assemblage conceptual approach to make sense of how the COVID-19 disaster was made possible and importantly how it was responded to, managed, exacerbated, and experienced as it continued to emerge. This approach is grounded in literature from critical disaster studies and geography. The analysis also draws on a wide range of other disciplines, ranging from epidemiology to anthropology and political science, as well as grey literature, newspaper reports, and official policy documents. The article is structured into three sections that investigate in turn and at different junctures the role of governmentality and disaster politics; scientific knowledge and expert advice, and socially and spatially differentiated disaster vulnerabilities in shaping the COVID-19 disaster in India. We put forward two main arguments on the basis of the literature reviewed. One is that both the impacts of the virus spread and the lockdown-responses to it affected already marginalised groups disproportionately. The other is that managing the COVID-19 pandemic through disaster management assemblage/apparatuses served to extend centralised executive authority in India. These two processes are demonstrated to be continuations of pre-pandemic trends. We conclude that evidence of a paradigm shift in India's approach to disaster management remains thin on the ground.

The social construction of systemic risk: towards an actionable framework for risk governance

Purpose: This paper explores the building blocks of risk governance systems that are equipped to manage systemic risk in the 21st century. Whilst approaches to risk governance have been evolving for more than a decade, recent disasters have shown that conventional risk management solutions need to be complemented with a multidimensional risk approach to govern complex risks and prevent major, often simultaneous, crises with cascading and knock-on effects on multiple, interrelated systems at scale. The paper explores which risk governance innovations will be essential to provide the enabling environment for sustainable development that is resilient to interrelated shocks and risks. Design/methodology/approach: This interdisciplinary literature review-based thought piece highlights how systemic risk is socially constructed and identifies guiding principles for systemic risk governance that could be actionable by and provide entry points for local and national governments, civil society and the private sector. particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), in a way that is relevant to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This considers preparedness, response and resilience, but more importantly prospective and corrective risk control and reduction strategies and mechanisms. Only when systemic risk is framed in a way that is relevant to the political agendas of countries will it be possible to begin a dialogue for its governance. Findings: The paper identifies opportunities at the global, national and local levels, which together draw up a viable framework for systemic risk governance that (1) embraces the governance of sustainability and resilience through a strengthened holistic governance framework for social, economic, territorial and environmental development;(2) improves managing conventional risk to ultimately manage systemic risks;(3) fosters the understanding of vulnerability and exposure to gain insight into systemic risk;(4) places a greater focus on prospective risk management;(5) manages systemic risk in local infrastructure systems, supply chains and ecosystems;(6) shifts the focus from protecting privatized gains to managing socialized risk. Originality/value: The choices and actions that societies take on the path of their development are contributing intentionally or unintentionally to the construction of systemic risks, which result in knock-on effects among interconnected social, environmental, political and economic systems. These risks are manifesting in major crises with cascading effects and a real potential to undermine the achievement of the SDGs, as COVID-19 is a stark reminder of. This paper offers the contours of a new risk governance paradigm that is able to navigate the new normal in a post-COVID world and is equipped to manage systemic risk. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Risk governance in the response to global health emergencies: understanding the governance of chaos in Brazil's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Covid-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has shown how inadequate institutional strategies interact with, and exacerbate, social inequalities, thus impacting upon the intensity of the harm produced and amplifying negative consequences. One of the lessons from this pandemic, which happens against the background of other, interconnected systemic crises, is the urgency of adopting a 'whole-of-society' approach to determining what does and what does not work in the context of a health emergency response. However, how can institutional performance in health emergency response be assessed? How to make sense of success or failure? We argue that the adoption of a risk governance approach sheds light on institutional performance in the response to health emergencies. Risk governance is particularly pertinent in situations where the potential for extreme consequences is considered high, where there are enormous uncertainties regarding the consequences and where different values are present and in dispute. Based on a documentary evidence review, we analyse the Brazilian response to Covid-19 by considering: (1) how the Brazilian federal government performed on its central role of managing the national response, (2) the reactions from other actors prompted by this performance and (3) the main observed effects emerging from this scenario. We argue that the Brazilian federal government response was weak in five risk governance parameters that are essential in a health crisis response: risk communication, transparency and accessibility of data, negotiation between actors, social cohesion and public participation and decisions based on technical and scientific evidence, resources and contexts. The neglect of risk governance parameters, combined with an attempt to spread doubt, confusion and disinformation-which could be termed a 'governance by chaos'-is an important element for making sense of the effects and controversies surrounding Covid-19 in Brazil.

Geophilosophical realness of risk: a case study in national housing authority resettlement sites in Albay, Philippines.

The geophilosophical realness of risk, as introduced in this study, is composed of the risk hotspot or cold spot information which are stored and sorted in hexagonal bins representing the host environment within the 25-km radius from the crater of the Mayon Volcano. The z scores measured from these hexagonal bins mimic the risk realness or risk reality phenomenon happening in Albay Province, Philippines. The objective of the study is to assess risk reality phenomena that generate risk knowledge originated from applying the seven metatheorems based on the Schoen Golden Triangle and the Fibonacci Golden Ratio. Risk assessment in this study uses the stability site selection criteria and hexagonal binning technique to store, sort, and process risk hotspot and coldspot information. This approach led to the disclosure of risk phenomenon on the 14 out of 25 resettlement sites (host environment) that remained at risk and continuously increasing the risk trend. When people are continuously allowed to occupy risk hotspots areas it hints at ineffective risk governance to neutralize the passively exposed population. This study concluded that the risk reality phenomena assessment opens new avenues for scientifically informed land use, nil exposure, and 0-risk policy in addition to the existing 0-casualty goal to get prepared with the right direction, decision and action to sensitively utilize the stable host environments aligned to improve risk governance.

A digital transformation-enabled framework and strategies for public health risk response and governance: China's experience

Purpose: Under uncertain circumstances, digital technologies are taken as digital transformation enablers and driving forces to integrate with medical, healthcare and emergency management research for effective epidemic prevention and control. This study aims to adapt complex systems in emergency management. Thus, a digital transformation-driven and systematic circulation framework is proposed in this study that can utilize the advantages of digital technologies to generate innovative and systematic governance. Design/methodology/approach: Aiming at adapting complex systems in emergency management, a systematic circulation framework based on the interpretive research is proposed in this study that can utilize the advantages of digital technologies to generate innovative and systematic governance. The framework consists of four phases: (1) analysis of emergency management stages, (2) risk identification in the emergency management stages, (3) digital-enabled response model design for emergency management, and (4) strategy generation for digital emergency governance. A case study in China was illustrated in this study. Findings: This paper examines the role those digital technologies can play in responding to pandemics and outlines a framework based on four phases of digital technologies for pandemic responses. After the phase-by-phase analysis, a digital technology-enabled emergency management framework, titled "Expected digital-enabled emergency management framework (EDEM framework)” was adapted and proposed. Moreover, the social risks of emergency management phases are identified. Then, three strategies for emergency governance and digital governance from the three perspectives, namely "Strengthening weaknesses for emergency response,” "Enhancing integration for collaborative governance,” and "Engaging foundations for emergency management” that the government can adopt them in the future, fight for public health emergency events. Originality/value: The novel digital transformation-driven systematic circulation framework for public health risk response and governance was proposed. Meanwhile, an "Expected digital-enabled emergency management framework (EDEM model)” was also proposed to achieve a more effective empirical response for public health risk response and governance and contribute to studies about the government facing the COVID-19 pandemic effectively. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Risk governance during the COVID‐19 pandemic: A quantitative content analysis of governors' narratives on twitter

The current study addresses the communication aspect of risk governance during the COVID‐19 pandemic by examining whether governors' tweets differ by political party, gender and crisis phase. Drawing on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) model and framing literature, we examined the salience of five CERC's communication objectives, namely acknowledge crisis with empathy, promote protective actions, describe preparedness/response efforts, address rumours and misunderstanding and segment audience. Using a deductive and inductive approach, we analysed 7000 Twitter messages sent by the 50 US state governors during the period of 13 March 2020 to 17 August 2020. Our findings suggest that governors' tweets aligned with CERC's communication objectives to a varying degree. We found main and interaction effects of political party, gender and crisis phase on governors' communication objectives. New emergent communication objectives included attention to mental health, call for social influencers and promoting hope. Implications are discussed.

Systemic risk from a disaster management perspective: A review of current research

Disasters are becoming increasingly common, unexpected, and difficult as a result of the rapid environmental and socioeconomic changes occurring at several levels. They are often the result of systemic risks marked by complexity, uncertainty, ambiguity, and cross-border consequences, very much like the continuing worldwide Covid 19 epidemic. These systemic risks outperform traditional risk management practices, posing new, unsolved policy and governance issues. This study aims to assess the origins of systemic risk thinking - particularly in relation to disaster risks, identify key inflection points in its evolution, and identify areas of opportunity in the governance of such risks by building on existing research and conducting a qualitative review of state-of-the-art literature published by academia, industry, and government. The study's findings indicate a positive shift in the recognition of systemic disaster risks, but they also underscore the need for further maturity in its management and governance. To increase holistic management of disaster-related systemic risks and coordinate an effective policy response, this research proposes the essential design principles and conceptual framework for Integrated disaster resilience (IDR) based on a ‘Whole Systems Approach'.

Six Pivotal Lessons Learned in South Korea for Whole-of-Government Approach to Successful COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout in Planetary Health.

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored that systems medicine depends on health systems and services that can respond to planetary health threats in scale and with speed. After 2 years of the pandemic, there are lessons learned in South Korea, from governance to risk communication for planetary health. The learning is timely because COVID-19 likely signals future ecological crises and emerging pathogens amid the climate emergency in the 21st century. By the end of March 2022, South Korea, with a population of 51.6 million, administered more COVID-19 vaccine doses per 100 people than other developed countries, including United Kingdom, Italy, Australia, Israel, Germany, and United States. In South Korea, 233.47 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were administered per 100 people, while Italy (229.48), China (229.39), Australia (217.44), the United Kingdom (211.39), Israel (194.82), and the United States (170.59) fell behind in vaccine rollout. Korea's whole-of-government approach to robust COVID-19 vaccination rollout prompted broad interest in planetary health. Notwithstanding that vaccine rollout is a complex multifactorial outcome, six salient, and often interdependent, factors are identified in this study of South Korea: (1) governance system; (2) logistic capability; (3) delivery strategy and accessibility; (4) established public health infrastructure; (5) risk communication; and (6) public cooperation and engagement. Integration of these factors can create multisectoral synergy to achieve better outcomes in vaccine rollout. The lessons from South Korea can help cultivate planetary health action in other parts of the world during the current COVID-19 pandemic, and in ecological crises in the future.

Enhancing risk governance and sustainability in times of COVID-19: Experiences and repercussions from Thailand

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has brought the world to a standstill. Governments throughout the world have been struggling for the adequate risk governance, reducing the pandemic risk. This chapter focuses on the experiences and the repercussions thereof in Thailand. Being the world's top COVID-19 recovery indexed country, Thailand, on the other hand, suffers from the economic downfall and recent uprising of public agitations as a direct result of COVID-19. The research methodology adopted for this study is qualitative. The data have been collected through key informant interviews among 50 respondents, who are selected among stakeholders who contribute toward disaster governance in Thailand. The data analysis process involves the Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threats (SWOT) analysis of the current COVID-19 situation. This chapter analyzes and provides for recommendations toward lessons learned, the repercussions and strategic measures to be adopted at local, national, and global levels for achieving comprehensive sustainable development. © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uttar Pradesh: state governance and response in COVID-19 pandemic

Since January 30, there has been a surge in novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak cases in almost all parts of the world except very few countries were able to restraint it with proactive measures. Last year, Uttar Pradesh recorded its first case of COVID-19 on March 4, 2020, in Ghaziabad. Despite having population of over 240 million and high population density as well as the low literacy levels in the state of Uttar Pradesh, the state government was able to deal with the adjoining risk with recovery rate of about 85.34% in the state. The preventive measures against coronavirus outbreak started in the first week of March 2020. There have been reports of total cases of about 384,856 with about 52,160 active cases. While till end of September 2020, 336,981 COVID-19 patients had recovered. Various risk governance strategies and inclusion of modern technologies paved the way for better and efficient public health emergency management of COVID-19 pandemic, effort being made by State government to scale up the team up to 1lakh for effective surveillance on COVID-19. UP Directorate General of Medical and Health services demarcated the health facilities as L1, L1 Covid Care Center, L2, and L3 throughout the state for treatment, depending on their capacity and beds availability. Special training programs designed especially for frontline workers like medical professionals, police personnel, Panchayati Raj, and the rural and urban development departments, together other line department, were carried out at an early stage. There are more than 3962 community kitchens running across the state that are catering to over 3.57lakhs beneficiaries with a total of expenses of around 898,963 USD from Relief Commissioner office. The Labor Department has been tracking the migrated population. State government has launched various schemes, programmes, and food supply to support low-income groups, MGNREGA cards holders, workers, and small wage earners. The four-step action plan that includes Integrated Command and Control Centers (ICCC), door-to-door survey, weekend lockdown for sanitization, and COVID help-desk at all government offices were effective part of risk governance strategies. © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk governance, resilience, and response against COVID-19 in the Republic of Korea

The Republic of Korea has faced an unprecedented crisis owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to investigate the emergence of COVID-19-related risks in Korea since 2020 and identify key lessons for formulating better response measures. The authors explore Korea's response to COVID-19 from January 2020 to March 2021, and find that its successful response relies on keeping to the principles of openness, transparency, and citizenry participation, as well as, adopting a Three-T Strategy consisting of strong diagnostic testing capabilities, contact tracing using ICT tools, and rigorous treatment. Crisis leadership also plays a critical role in combating COVID-19 through identifying emerging risks, making evidence-based decisions, and unifying administrative efforts. In addition, a national response manual is useful in delineating the roles of responsible agencies since the earliest stage. Finally, the authors find that understanding the features of the pandemic's systemic risk is essential to respond to COVID-19 effectively. © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemics and pandemics risk governance: a case of post-COVID-19 in the United Kingdom

COVID-19 made significant health, economic, and social impact across the world. The situation urgently needs to strengthen disaster risk reduction strategies to reduce risks and enhance resilience. Nevertheless, many instances have evidenced disaster risk governance-related issues. This study examined the United Kingdom's present disaster risk governance system since the country has been hit significantly by the pandemic. The study evaluates the risk governance system in the United Kingdom across the key elements of the International Risk Governance Framework. The study conducted a systematic literature review following a literature review protocol. Documents were selected from the Science Direct, Emerald, and Google Scholar databases. Across the framework elements, several challenges were found within the UK's pandemic risk governance system. The study highlights the strength of the well-developed legal and policy supported the country's risk governance system. Even though the study was conducted at the early stage of the pandemic, the early findings will benefit policymakers and practitioners shaping the pandemic risk governance system in the country for a resilient society. © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Governance Perspectives for compounding hazards: a case study in Megacity Kolkata

The Kolkata Megacity is vulnerable to several hazards ranging from weather related to biological: tidal upsurge, earthquake, cyclone, urban storm/heavy rain-induced flooding and waterlogging, and others. The Kolkata Metropolitan Area is a continuous stretch of the urban and peri-urban area along with the east and west coast of the Hooghly River, which is surrounded by some rural regions acting as a green belt as protecting cover of the city. Cyclone Amphan on May 2020 made landfall and wreaked havoc when the world was already reeling under the COVID-19 pandemic. The twin disasters—hydrometeorological and biological hazard compounded—and the cascading impacts have affected a significant population on West Bengal. Present study explores the risk governance perspectives in the context of dual disasters. The study also reflects the need of risk informed community preparedness for immediate response and early recovery as the key element for the resilience building. © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disaster risk governance in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic in Central America: the case of Guatemala

The COVID-19 Pandemic is a systemic threat of a dimension that humanity has no close precedent, which is why national systems for responding to disasters and biological threats are not prepared for its management. In developing countries such as Guatemala, there are weaknesses of the State, low investment in Health, a deficient primary health-care system, poverty and social exclusion that facilitate the propensity of the country, and people to suffer serious impacts due to the closure or suspension partial of economic and social activities and secondary environmental impacts. This chapter analyzes the governance capacities of Guatemala to face a systemic threat of biological origin such as COVID-19. The Pandemic called COVID-19 is a systemic, global, and of great importance threat related not only to public health, but also to all human activities, whether of an economic, social, or environmental nature. To understand its relationship and impact on disaster risk governance, it is necessary to review some global and national governance frameworks that allow the identification of related aspects, starting from the premise that good governance facilitates the proper management of processes in any activity, in this case in the context of a global emergency. © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Role of Disaster Risk Governance for Effective Post-Disaster Risk Management—Case of Croatia

Risk governance is mostly viewed through the lens of disaster or emergency management departments, agencies, or organizations. Visible in times of crises, risk governance is rarely seen as part of everyday public or private functions such as planning, social welfare, investments, or fiscal responsibilities. This paper emphasizes the importance of disaster risk governance in disaster risk management activities on the example of the post-disaster recovery of Croatia after a series of strong seismic events in mainland Croatia. The analysis is made based on a thorough review of national documents of Croatia and other selected countries overlapped with the national journals reporting on the situation from the affected areas. In accordance with the authors’ opinion, the necessary elements of disaster risk governance are clearly stated through the four Sendai framework priorities, and this statement is supported by the facts from the case study. Without either the political will or the enabling surrounding the disaster, risk management is next to impossible. The Croatian case study emphasizes the importance of disaster risk governance, showcasing the adaptation process for the post-disaster recovery process to start.

Regular COVID-19 Pandemic Containment in Communities: A Risk Governance Perspective.

Post COVID-19, differentiated regular management in place of strict lockdowns is more favored as a feasible option for balancing economic resumption and pandemic control. China's transition experience shows that this stage came not easily, during which regional sporadic outbreaks could re-emerge. Actually, it is an ongoing process of identifying loopholes and refining the management. Based on the IRGC risk governance framework, this article analyzes these challenges in community involvement posed by the transition. The systematic examination of the whole risk chain would be conducive to contain the virus spread, lessen the pressure of communities for the battle and enhance future responses for a possible resurgence. Unlike the emergency mode with mass mobilized, during regular control periods, community becomes the critical frontline for suppressing COVID-19 but with limited manpower and resources. Still, it can serve as a transformation platform to motivate atomized residents to take responsibility or contribute. Notably, the health governance of all people never ends. With the increased knowledge of COVID-19, the progress of pandemic control, and the needed adjustments for behavioral responses, different communities should come up with more suitable options instead of rigid management back to the old days.

Environmental Risk Perception and Preventive Behavior during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Taiwan.

Due to traffic and industrial and seasonal air pollution, wearing masks outside the home has long been a daily habit for many people in Taiwan. After the emergence of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which has an incubation period of up to 14 days, wearing masks and maintaining social distancing was advised to reduce exposure to this new environmental risk. This study investigates open and semi-open spaces in three districts in central Taiwan, using a non-participant observation method, with the aim of understanding people's mask-wearing behavior. The results indicate that mask-wearing rates were higher in urban areas than in rural ones and among females than males. By age cohort, mask-wearing was most prevalent among young adults and middle-aged people and least prevalent among minors, with the elderly occupying a middle position. Masks were also more likely to be worn in semi-open spaces than in open ones. This study enriches our understanding of environmental risk perception of the pandemic and of public perceptions, which are vital to increasing the adoption of preventative measures.

A Multi-Criteria Framework for Pandemic Response Measures.

In managing the COVID-19 pandemic, several compelling narratives seem to have played a significant role in the decision-making processes regarding which risk mitigation and management measures to implement. Many countries were to a large extent unprepared for such a situation, even though predictions about a significant probability for a pandemic to occur existed, and national governments of several countries often acted in an uncoordinated manner, which resulted in many inconsistencies in the disaster risk reduction processes. Limited evidence has also made room for strategic narratives meant to persuade the public of the chosen set of actions, even though the degree of uncertainty regarding the outcomes of these was high, further complicating the situation. In this article, we assume a normative standpoint regarding rhapsodic decision making and suggest an integrated framework for a more elaborated decision analysis under the ambiguity of how to contain the virus spread from a policy point of view, while considering epidemiologic estimations and socioeconomic factors in a multi-stakeholder-multi-criteria context based on a co-creative work process for eliciting attitudes, perceptions, as well as preferences amongst relevant stakeholder groups. The framework, applied in our paper on Romania for demonstrative purposes, is used for evaluating mitigation measures for catastrophic events such as the COVID-19 situation, to mobilize better response strategies for future scenarios related to pandemics and other hazardous events, as well as to structure the production and analysis of narratives on the current pandemic effects.

Layering risk work amidst an emerging crisis: an ethnographic study on the governance of the COVID-19 pandemic in a university hospital in the Netherlands.

The start of the COVID-19 pandemic early 2020 has confronted healthcare sectors with risks and uncertainties on an unprecedented scale in recent history. Healthcare organisations faced acute problems, the answers to which had to be provided, and recalibrated, at short notice and informally. University hospitals played a pivotal role in providing these answers and in (re)calibrating institutional arrangements. Based on ethnographic research in an elite university hospital in the Netherlands, in this article we explore the concrete practices of governing risks and uncertainties that COVID-19 posed for the organisation of healthcare. Our fieldwork consisted of the observation of meetings at the level of the hospital boards, the staff, and the regional level. We collected relevant documents and interviewed key-actors. This approach offers us a large dataset on acute risk governance 'from within' and allows us to offer a layered ethnographic account of managerial practices. In our analysis we focus on conceptualising the work-as-done in the university hospital as risk work. We show how the risk work of our participants is generally characterised by high speed and delineated by scarcities. We differentiate between three modes of risk work: working on numbers, working on expertise and working on logistics. This risk work appears innovative, but our analysis stresses how participants' work happened in interaction with traditional institutional logics and routines.